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'True' Broadband Can Grow GDP: Gartner August 27, 2002 / atnewyork.com
"True" broadband infrastructure would help advanced countries such as the United States add as much as $500 billion to their Gross Domestic Product, according to Gartner Dataquest. The tech research firm reckons the impact of ubiquitous broadband in the U.S. could total as much as $500 billion worth of goods and services produced over a span of ten years. But it also said the estimate is based on what it calls "true" broadband, defined as 10 megabytes per-second data transmission speeds.
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Worldwide Broadband Trends July 25, 2002 / ISP-Planet
"Contrary to some published reports the Arizona-based research firm contends that broadband Internet services are alive and well in the U.S. and beyond. In one of its latest studies, Broadband 2002: DSL & Cable Modem Services Fuel Worldwide Subscriber Growth, In-Stat/MDR analysts examine the growth of broadband Internet access subscribers in the U.S. and worldwide.
Findings indicate that increasing user demands for faster connections to the Web spurred substantial subscriber growth over the past year. Based on In-Stat/MDR's analysis, the number of worldwide broadband subscribers passed the 30 million mark at the beginning of 2002. Analysts forecast that by the end of this year, worldwide subscriber totals will surpass 46 million.
Among the technologies profiled in the report, Broadband Connectivity: Options for the Enterprise, analysts review DSL, cable modem, passive optical network (PON), fixed wireless, satellite, and free-space optics (FSO) technologies that are each capable of delivering reliable cost savings in different deployment scenarios.
More Info about how a Growing Broadband Market Could Lift Economy:
The number of worldwide broadband Internet subscribers will reach more than 15 million in 2001 and more than 30 million in 2004, according to a report from Multimedia Research Group, Inc (MRG). An additional 24 million have broadband access through office LANs.
A study by Brookings Institution economist Robert Crandall and engineering consultant Charles Jackson, projects that an acceleration of widespread broadband use could benefit U.S. consumers and producers by as much as $500 billion.
"Our study suggests that the benefits to U.S. consumers could eventually be upwards of $300 billion per year and that producers could reap another $100 billion per year if broadband were to be as prevalent as ordinary telephone service today," Crandall said. "And that could be a conservative estimate. Because we cannot easily foresee all of broadband's potential uses -- in healthcare, for example -- we may have underestimated its potential."
The study assesses the consumer and producer gains from broadband use using several different lenses, assuming a low-estimate of 50 percent broadband penetration and a high-estimate of 94 percent penetration -- a number that mirrors the percentage of U.S. households with telephone service.
"These large estimates of the potential value of broadband Internet connections can only be realized if a very large share of households have broadband connections," Crandall said. "At present, fewer than 8 percent of households have broadband service; therefore, many of the valuable applications have not yet been developed."
The study identifies five areas or activities that are likely to drive these consumer benefits: home shopping, reduced commuting, entertainment services, conventional telephone services and telemedicine.
"Clearly, the impact of broadband by any measure -- in terms of GDP, jobs, U.S. productivity and efficiency -- will be profound," Jackson said. "We're looking at a transformative technology: one that doesn't just create change at the margins of an economic system, but at its core."
Applications May Lead Europeans to Broadband
Only 4 percent of online users in Europe have broadband Internet access, a Forrester Research report found, despite increased usage of the types of applications made for broadband.
Forrester's report is based on a survey of consumers in 13 European countries. It found that three types of applications benefit most from broadband access: media sharing, entertainment information, and what Forrester calls "snacking" activities -- short, frequent spells of online activity.
File sharing will see the largest broadband effect, while the uptake of MP3 downloads, software downloads and online games will also increase significantly. Broadband's always-on, call-charge-free model encourages "snacking" communication applications like SMS, chat, instant messaging, newsgroup participation and free e-mail. And broadband facilitates access to entertainment content like magazine and entertainment sites, movie information sites and gambling due to the rich media experience made possible by higher bandwidth.
"Broadband consumer behavior is uniform across Europe, and users exhibit classic early-adopter demographics: They are male, young, and with a penchant for entertainment and buying consumer technology," said Paul Jackson, a Technographics analyst at Forrester. "These high-end consumers have fewer financial commitments and are more prone to discretionary spending, so buying broadband would seem like a relatively small expense for them. In addition, entertainment-motivated individuals like these focus only on cool new content and communication, not business and educational content. Finally, they are naturally drawn to online shopping and banking."
Broadband access doesn't contribute to an increase in the number of online shoppers, Forrester found, but it does increase by 20 percent the likelihood of a consumer spending more than 80 Euros per online transaction. Broadband users find two of the top eight online retail categories most attractive -- DVDs/videos and computer hardware. Retailers specializing in categories like clothing and travel are expecting to cash in on consumers with broadband because of the potential for more sophisticated consumer interfaces. But Forrester found that broadband access does not influence the purchase of such goods.
The development of the European broadband market will be an issue worth watching in 2002. Belgium (12 percent) and Sweden (18 percent) currently lead the way with the highest proportion of homes in Europe with broadband connections, according to Jupiter MMXI.
Britain and Italy are expected to see the most growth in the number of broadband households during 2002, with each country experiencing a threefold increase by the end of the year. Despite this, Jupiter MMXI does not expect broadband penetration in Europe to reach critical mass (15 percent) until 2006. Even then, it could be helped by two-way satellite, fiber-to-the-home and fixed wireless broadband access alternatives, which should being to make a dent in the market in 2002.
Broadband, the term that describes high-speed transmission of data over fiber or broadband wireless Ethernet, is quickly becoming a prevalent connectivity technology that will have an immense impact on Web developers. Digital video, IP telephony, music and large images are all examples of data that will be enabled by high-bandwidth Internet connections. Aimed at computers and most likely the web-connected TV set-top boxes of the future, new broadband content will create a demand for web designers who can adapt traditional skills such as broadcast design, to fit this new incarnation of the Web and unleash the full potential of the Internet as a mass marketing medium - broadband interactivity will add a new dimension to TV/Internet (it is fast becoming one-in-the-same).
BROADBAND ACCESS (Both "Wired" & Wireless) IS THE KEY TO GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH!!! It promises to unlock the FULL-POTENTIAL of the Internet. Everyone just needs to KEEP THEIR composure while we work through the current stock market volatility - After all... It is our OWN run-away EMOTIONAL FEARS that causes the Stock Markets to react negatively. KEEP A COOL HEAD & WE WILL RETURN TO PROGRESS & PROSPERITY ONCE AGAIN!!!
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